September 15, 2024:
In July of this year Russia announced that it was reinforcing air defenses at their Olenya air base in Murmansk province. This came after Ukrainian long-range drones attacked and damaged two of the Tu-22M3 used to attack Ukrainian targets 1,800 kilometers to the south. With the Ukrainians reciprocating, Russia is trying to upgrade air defenses before the Ukrainians strike again.
Ukrainian UAV developers and manufacturers have an advantage in that entrepreneurial developers and manufacturers are encouraged. In Russia such intellectual and manufacturing freedom is discouraged. The Russian state must control everything because that is how Russia became mighty and remains so. That’s the official explanation. Russians consider the Ukrainians seduced by, and addicted to, heretical Western ideas and concepts like innovating without official permission. Ukrainians see those Russian attitudes as an asset for the Ukrainian war effort. This gives Ukraine an edge in the development and use of new UAV technology. Ukraine encourages individuals and small groups of entrepreneurs to develop and manufacture new UAV designs and technologies. The government or wealthy individuals will often finance effective new concepts so that production can be rapidly expanded before the new tech becomes obsolete or simply replaced by a more effective version.
Russia adapted to their disadvantage in UAV development by concentrating on electronic jammers. By rapidly upgrading their jammer technology, Russians can disrupt a lot of new Ukrainian UAV tech for a while. This disruption is becoming more important for the Russians because Ukraine has developed several generations of long range drones that can reach targets over 1,000 kilometers distant. In 2023 this meant attacks near Moscow and St Petersburg as well as nearby factories and industrial operations. Ukrainian drones are increasingly reaching their targets deep inside Russia. That means Russian economic and military facilities far from Ukraine are suddenly under attack. These targets include refineries and fuel storage sites as well as weapons development, manufacturing, and storage facilities. In 2023 these attacks destroyed about fifteen percent of Russian refining capacity, reducing the amount of vehicle fuel available for commercial and military users.
Air bases and ballistic missile storage or launch sites are also under attack. Targets as distant as the Russian Northern Fleet bases around Murmansk are under attack. This has caused a shortage of anti-aircraft systems that can intercept some or all of the UAVs depending on how many UAVs and air defense systems are involved.
To deal with this Ukraine has increased production of UAVs considerably and the objective for 2024 is two million new UAVs built, mostly armed ones. These numbers are comparable to artillery ammunition production, which for Russia is estimated to be three million rounds a year. Armed drones used in large attacks are on the verge of becoming as or more important than conventional tube artillery. UAV manufacturing operations are often moved to underground facilities to avoid Russian missile attacks. Nearly all the components needed for UAV production are available commercially and can be purchased from European or American suppliers and imported. Custom components are manufactured locally in well protected installations. UAV quality and quantity are a Ukrainian advantage they do not want to lose.
Russia is also increasing UAV production, in part because they recently lost their few A-50 surveillance aircraft and now must depend on UAVs for surveillance. Another Russian disadvantage is their reliance on larger and more expensive surveillance and attack UAVs. Ukraine is taking advantage of these Russian problems by concentrating on attacking distant airbases and military related manufacturing sites.